Prof. Dr. Janpeter Schilling, Managing Director of the Peace Academy Rhineland-Palatinate, and Rebecca Froese, Research Associate at the Peace Academy, attended the international climate negotiations in Katowice, Poland, as observers. They report on their impressions in an interview for the Peace Academy blog.

In a nutshell, what were this year's negotiations about?

Schilling: At the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, the countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius and, if possible, to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. This year, the aim was to draw up a set of rules that defines how national climate targets can be reviewed and voluntarily tightened. At the same time, poorer countries are to be supported by richer countries in both climate adaptation and the avoidance of greenhouse gases.

In view of the fact that global warming has already reached over 1 degree Celsius, how realistic is it to limit warming to 1.5 degrees?

Froese: A special report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October shows just how dramatic the reduction in greenhouse gases would have to be in order to still achieve the 1.5 degree target: Global emissions would have to fall drastically by the middle of the century and then cease completely. The report is one of the most quoted documents of this COP ("Conference of the Parties", climate negotiations). The USA caused a scandal right at the start of the negotiations when the country's representatives remarked that they did not "welcome" the report, as the vast majority of states did, but merely "took note of it".

Schilling: Shortly before the start of COP24 in Katowice, Brazil had already announced that it would not be hosting COP25, which was planned for 2019, after all. The heads of state and government are therefore facing a Herculean task with the "decarbonization" of the global energy, economic and transport system, while at the same time important emitters of greenhouse gases, such as the USA and oil states like Saudi Arabia, are taking a blocking stance. If they continue to block each other, achieving the 1.5 degree target seems a long way off.

What expectations did you have going into the COP?

Schilling: In times of growing nationalism and "my-country-first agendas", you can almost be glad that there are still international climate negotiations at all in which every country actually participates. There are currently no real alternative formats that allow small countries to have an almost equal say. The negotiations on the rulebook have now been going on for three years, so the greatest expectation was probably that there would finally be a breakthrough in this regard at this COP.

What is your overall assessment of the outcome of the negotiations?

Schilling: You can certainly call it a success, especially given the political conditions under which this agreement was reached. A solid rulebook was adopted for the implementation of the Paris Agreement, according to which countries will have to report every two years from 2020 on what they are doing to protect the climate and whether these measures reduce CO2 emissions. From 2023, it will then be assessed every five years whether the countries are achieving the climate targets they have set themselves. In addition, industrialized countries are to further increase their contributions to climate financing from 2025.

Froese: On the other hand, the final document has only been approved by all states because the thorny discussion about so-called double counting, i.e. when states add CO2 savings or financing in two or more different places to their climate targets, has been postponed until COP25 next year. Expectations that many countries would set themselves higher climate targets at this conference were also disappointed. Although the coalition of ambitious countries, including the EU and Germany, have announced more ambitious targets from 2020, the coalition of ambitious countries remained rather small this year compared to the momentum that was still evident in Paris. In the final document, the states did not clearly commit to the 1.5 degree special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as many observers had called for, but instead left it at a declaration of thanks to the scientists.

How did you perceive Germany's role overall?

Schilling: Germany will very probably not achieve its own climate targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. The coal phase-out in Germany is also still unclear. Although Germany is still an important player when it comes to renewable energies, the country has lost its reputation as a pioneer in climate protection. This became clear at several side events at the COP.

Froese: In this light, Germany's pledge to double its contribution to the Green Climate Fund then seems a bit like a foreign policy pretext to distract from domestic inertia on climate policy. Nevertheless, this increase in the contribution is of course an important sign that will hopefully motivate many other industrialized countries to provide funds for climate protection and adaptation in developing countries.

What was the mood like at the conference?

Schilling: It is difficult to gauge the mood at such a large and complex event, but the euphoria sparked by Paris seemed to have faded. This was also due to the very technical nature of this COP, which was essentially about the small print of the regulations.

Froese: Overall, it was difficult to pick up on the mood of the delegates because many negotiations were only accessible to observers with a special ticket system and information only sometimes leaked out. In my experience, there was also much less civil society protest this year. It only got really loud once, when protesters disrupted a pro-coal side event organized by the Americans.

Which event or speech do you remember in particular?

Schilling: Al Gore's speech was rhetorically impressive. It showed impressively how dramatic the consequences of climate change are worldwide. Unfortunately, his portrayal of the Syrian conflict as a conflict driven by climate change was very abbreviated and his fear-mongering about "climate refugees", together with the statement "They are hungry", was not very helpful. Nevertheless, applause and standing ovations followed.

Froese: I didn't necessarily find the Talanoa Dialogue emotionally moving, but in terms of format it was very impressive. The term Talanoa was introduced by the Fiji presidency during the last climate negotiations (COP23) in Bonn and is an approach to conflict resolution in Fiji in which the conflicting parties come together as equals, tell their stories without judgment or prejudice and thus create mutual understanding for their respective perspectives. The strength of this dialog is that it breaks down old negotiation structures and brings not only government parties but also civil society into the conversation.

What happens now?

Schilling: The decisive factor will be how well the system of "shaming and blaming", i.e. the negative feedback from other countries and organizations when national climate targets are not met, works. Regardless of the national climate targets and compliance with them, the expansion of renewable energies will continue to progress rapidly, as it also makes economic sense.

Froese: The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) have announced a first joint conference for March 2019, which will explicitly focus on finding synergies between the international climate targets and the United Nations' sustainability goals (Agenda 2030). In my opinion, the equitable shaping of global change must then be at the top of the agenda, specifically human rights, food security, the rights of indigenous communities, gender equality, intergenerational justice, ecosystem integrity and public participation. Ultimately, this process can only be successful if all states, companies and civil society pull together, or, as the Fiji Presidency put it at the last COP: "We are all in the same boat".