ByChristina Grein

Three years after democratic elections ended the rule of the semi-military government in Myanmar, the democratization process is at an impasse. The military continues to hold the reins of power. The human rights situation has worsened dramatically. The government of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi appears to have failed.

When Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) won the national elections in 2015, large sections of the Myanmar population expected a political turnaround. The new government was met with a great deal of patience and forbearance, both nationally and internationally. After all, as powerful as the image of the former opposition was, it had had virtually no previous political experience. It was to be expected that this legislative period could be turbulent. This is because the military still has the constitutional right to participate in politics and controls three central authorities - the Ministries of the Interior, Border Affairs and Defense. Furthermore, unlike the ruling party, the military has decades of experience in political rule.

Developments under the new government took on a worrying shape shortly after it took office in 2016. Suu Kyi and the NLD were unable or unwilling to halt the decline in democratization in the country and to master the balancing act with the military that is so often invoked internationally. The human rights situation in Myanmar has deteriorated immensely. Starting with the repression of freedom of expression, the exponential increase in anti-Muslim resentment and hate speech, the intensification of armed conflicts in the north-east and the expulsion and unimaginable atrocities against the Rohingya.

Peace process at an impasse

The military has already proven that it is the strongest and most assertive actor in the peace negotiations with the non-state armed groups. It will do everything in its power to maintain or even expand its central position in the power structure. It is therefore not surprising that the perceptions and interests of the ethnic minorities are hardly included in the talks. It is true that 10 out of 20 officially recognized armed ethnic groups have now signed the national ceasefire agreement. However, the decisive organizations with the most troops are still refusing to take this step. In view of the weak role of the government in this process, a political dialog on an equal footing between all parties involved is illusory. The peace negotiations are therefore currently at a standstill.

The ongoing armed conflicts in the north and north-east are not temporary skirmishes, but a continuation of the civil war that has been raging in the country since independence in 1948. Only recently, Myanmar's military carried out several attacks using heavy weapons, bombs and artillery fire on civilian areas in Kachin and northern Shan State. Over 120,000 people have been displaced here since 2011. To this day, humanitarian and human rights organizations are generally denied access to the affected regions. There have also been repeated clashes in other nationality regions in recent years, most of which have been provoked by the military, including with armed ethnic groups that have signed the ceasefire agreement with the government and the military. The military continues to follow its own rules. Human rights organizations accuse the army of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The peace process is therefore not under a good star.

Fight against freedom of expression

The exercise and defense of basic human rights are regularly prevented and punished by the authorities. Freedom of expression and freedom of the press in particular have been increasingly restricted in the last two years. Just recently, two journalists working for the Reuters news agency were sentenced to seven years in prison. The journalists had investigated a military massacre of ten Rohingya in Rakhine State. The court found them guilty of obtaining secret government documents as part of their research, thereby violating a colonial-era law on state secrets. The UN is now accusing the government and the military of using political means to suppress independent journalism.

No clarification of the crimes in Rakhine State

Over 700,000 Rohingya and Muslims have fled to Bangladesh to escape military violence in Rakhine State. Here they are housed in camps in disastrous conditions. The majority of them are women, children and elderly people. Several thousand people are said to have been killed by Myanmar security forces in the north of Rakhine State. Last year, an international commission of inquiry was set up by the UN Human Rights Council to independently investigate the situation in Myanmar, including in Kachin and northern Shan as well as Rakhine, and to formulate recommendations. In its final report from September of this year, the commission calls for the investigation and prosecution of Myanmar's top military ranks in particular. The military should be investigated for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. It recommends entrusting the International Criminal Court or a special tribunal with this task and imposing sanctions on individuals. Local and international human rights organizations welcome the report and call on the UN to take immediate action. Myanmar's government had refused to cooperate with the commission. There were no official meetings or exchange of information, nor were the Commission members granted entry into the country.

In the wake of coordinated attacks on police and military posts by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army in northern Rakhine, the exodus of Rohingya took on extreme proportions. The military launched counter-insurgency operations and is still sealing off the region today. Human rights organizations report systematic rapes, killings and the destruction of several settlements. With few exceptions, media access to the region is still being denied. Humanitarian aid is also still proving to be very difficult.

Pending trial of strength

Recent developments in Myanmar have shaken the foundations of the democratization process. We can expect an ongoing trial of strength between Myanmar's government, the military and the international community in the near future. The International Criminal Court in The Hague has announced that it will initiate a preliminary investigation. However, this also requires the cooperation of the Myanmar government, which has not signed the Rome Statute. The mandate of the Criminal Court is therefore limited to the national borders of Bangladesh, a signatory to the Rome Statute. This means that military personnel can be charged with displacement, but not with genocide, war crimes or crimes against humanity.

The most pressing questions now concern the conflict situation in the north and the future of the displaced people in Bangladesh. What should happen to the displaced people, will they have a say in this and how can they finally be granted citizenship? Without Myanmar's cooperation, the UN will not be able to offer any solutions. The impunity and arbitrary use of force that still prevail in the country today must be ended. To do so, the international community must take into account the complexity of the conflict in its entirety and learn to read between the lines. In-depth and long-term engagement in the country as well as support and promotion of civil society remain crucial.