By Gisela Müller-Brandeck-Bocquet
The EU is currently not pursuing a clear, convincing course with Erdogan's increasingly autocratic government. It would be important right now for it to show backbone and not compromise on its democratic values because of the refugee agreement.
The European-Turkish relationship: a difficult story
Relations between the EU and Turkey have always been extremely difficult. The association agreement concluded in 1963 remained a precarious project due to the military coups in Turkey (1960, 1971, 1980, 1997) and when accession negotiations with Turkey began in 2005, this was preceded by deep inner-European disputes. Ultimately, those forces that wanted to promote and consolidate Turkey's democratization course under Recep Tayyip Erdogan had prevailed. However, the negotiations were partially suspended at the end of 2006 and have been languishing for a decade since then.
However, when the EU concluded an agreement with Turkey on March 18, 2016 to deal with the influx of refugees, this deal included the intention to revive the accession negotiations and drive them forward with renewed vigor. It remains to be seen to what extent both sides seriously believed in this plan. It is highly likely that Erdogan, who has since become an autocratic president, is no longer seriously interested in Turkey's accession to the EU; and how the EU, shaken by polycrises, would be able to cope with such a move is anyone's guess. The decision to intensify accession negotiations was therefore primarily a symbolic act on both sides.
A divided EU
Nevertheless, there have been heated exchanges in the EU in recent weeks over how to deal with Turkey. The question is whether accession negotiations with Ankara can and should still be conducted in light of the brutal repression with which the Erdogan regime reacted to the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016. With more than 100,000 civil servants suspended from duty and around 40,000 people arrested, as well as massive attacks on freedom of the press and freedom of expression, Turkish democracy and the rule of law are in serious danger.
On November 24, 2016, the European Parliament therefore voted by a large majority (479 votes to 37 with 107 abstentions) to freeze negotiations with Turkey, i.e. "neither to discuss open negotiation chapters with Ankara nor to open new chapters"(Zeit-online, 25.11.2016). The EU parliamentarians emphasized that this is a temporary demand that could be lifted once Turkey returns to full rule of law. This resolution is not legally binding, but nevertheless caused a great deal of anger in Turkey.
When the Council of Foreign Ministers discussed the issue on December 13, 2016, no decision could be made. The required unanimity could not be achieved because Austria's Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) backed the European Parliament's resolution and called for the negotiations to be frozen. "It's not at all about slamming doors or no longer remaining in talks," Kurz is quoted as saying, but rather about "setting a political symbol and no longer deluding Turkey that accession to the EU will soon be possible"(Süddeutsche Zeitung, 13.12.2016). However, Kurz was unable to prevail with this courageous stance among his colleagues. Instead, in a non-binding declaration by the foreign ministers, the Slovakian Council Presidency stated that no new negotiation chapters should be opened under the current circumstances, but that the process itself should not be frozen. The EU-Turkey cooperation on the refugee issue is explicitly praised as successful - the dependence on Turkey on this issue is likely to be de facto decisive for the very moderate tone of the declaration. Nevertheless, the ministers repeatedly express their serious concern about the rule of law in Turkey.
The supporters of this conciliatory stance - including Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier - emphasized that they wanted to maintain the dialogue with Ankara, also in order to be able to exert influence. In addition, the Turkish opposition also vehemently supported this course. Foreign Minister Kurz, who cast doubt on the EU's positive influence on Erdogan, was sharply criticized; Michael Roth, Minister of State at the Federal Foreign Office, castigated Austria's uncompromising stance as "very disappointing"(Süddeutsche Zeitung, 13.12.2016). The only EU foreign minister who wants to speak plainly with Ankara in view of the precarious situation in Turkey is accused of dividing the Union.
Against this backdrop, the Commission's latest plans appear downright unscrupulous and spineless, as it wants to expand economic relations and the customs union with Turkey. The Commission emphasized that these plans should be "viewed independently of the current development of relations"(Süddeutsche Zeitung, 21.12.2016).
But hello, you have to shout, is it still possible? Can you be any more instinctive, any more opportunistic? In its "Turkey Progress Report" of November 9, 2016, the Commission accuses the country of regressing in terms of the independence of the judiciary and freedom of expression and sees a significant deterioration in its overall chances of accession. "Turkey has obviously decided to move away from Europe," said Johannes Hahn, EU Commissioner for Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement, at the presentation of the report(Zeit-online, 9.11.2016).
How can the Juncker Commission, which sees itself as political, so disrespectfully ignore a resolution passed by an overwhelming majority of the European Parliament, the conscience of Europe? How can it disavow the declaration of the Slovakian Presidency in office, which just a few days ago stated that new negotiation chapters would not be opened and thus at least pointed in the "right direction", as the dissenter Sebastian Kurz acknowledged? How can all this be?
No negotiations with an authoritarian Turkey
Erdogan is currently planning a fundamental restructuring of the Turkish political system, which would give the president very far-reaching powers in future. The government would then no longer be answerable to parliament, but to the president, who would also become commander-in-chief of the armed forces. A corresponding referendum is planned for March 2017 (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 09.01./10.01.2017). Erdogan has also repeatedly held out the prospect of a parliamentary vote on the reintroduction of the death penalty. Should this happen, EU accession is definitely out of the question.
It would therefore be a sensible and responsible solution if the Commission and Council - why not the European Council as the assembly of EU heads of state and government? - would support the vote of the European Parliament. They should decide: We, the European Union, will suspend negotiations with Turkey until the referendum and parliamentary vote have taken place and Turkey's future course has thus become clear. We, the EU, will use this time to hold an in-depth debate on whether we still want Turkey to join in the foreseeable future. And we are creating new, alternative and innovative modalities to reliably connect third countries that are not EU members with us in a spirit of partnership - in view of the impending Brexit, we need to think very hard about such new models anyway.
