From military to civilian security policy
By Ralf Becker
As part of its peace ethics process, the Evangelical Church in Baden has developed a scenario of how Germany could overcome military security policy by 2040. Between 2015 and 2018, a working group of experts drew up a positive scenario, a negative scenario and a trend scenario for security policy developments. Suggestions from peace and conflict research, the ranks of critical soldiers and church aid organizations were also incorporated into the development through expert discussions. In April 2018, the results were published in a 168-page book and as a 30-page summary and have since been widely received.
All three scenarios are presented in the form of so-called milestones of possible development. In the trend scenario, the gradual militarization of the police and German and European foreign policy increases, as does the number of people fleeing to Europe. In the negative scenario, this would result in the establishment of armed vigilante groups and an increasing number of failed states in the immediate vicinity of the EU from the mid-2020s. Increasing conflicts within Europe would also be fought out with more and more violence, which would result in an economic slump along with increasing unemployment and the destabilization of European democracies.
The positive scenario describes an alternative development in which 2% of GDP (i.e. EUR 70 billion per year) is invested in civil crisis prevention and sustainable development instead of military security policy by 2040. The German government's 2014 implementation report on the "Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding" action plan, whose tried and tested instruments are being systematically developed and strategically advanced, is extensively referenced.
In terms of content, the positive scenario describes five pillars of civil security policy: a sustainable way of life and economy, sustainable development of EU member states, civil participation in the international security architecture, resilient democracy and conversion of the German armed forces and arms industry.
As an exemplary milestone in the area of resilient democracy in Germany, the existing training courses on civil, non-violent conflict management could be expanded across the board, both among the population and in the political-professional sector. Department S for Civilian Crisis Prevention at the Federal Foreign Office, which currently has only 500 employees and is involved in 40 international mediation processes, could be greatly expanded in terms of funding and personnel.
An initiative of 15 state, national and European church and civil society organizations has set itself the goal of actually achieving the intended political paradigm shift in Germany towards a civil security policy by 2030 on the basis of the scenario. The model for this civil society/church campaign is the "Year of Cancellation" campaign, which between 1996 and the G8 summit in Cologne in 1999 achieved a worldwide cancellation of foreign debt for 40 highly indebted so-called developing countries.
In concrete terms, this goal is pursued through an educational campaign to overcome the myth of the effectiveness of violence. Through the dissemination of international study results, the relative ineffectiveness of military means to achieve political goals is to be made known to the population. The scenario refers, among other things, to research studies such as those by the US-Americans E. Chenoweth and M. J. Stephan, who, on the basis of 460 uprisings studied between 1900 and 2015, prove that and why civil resistance is twice as successful as violent resistance.
In this context, 'Rethinking Security' offers training and further education courses throughout Germany. A comprehensive collection of studies and documents is also available for download. In addition, the initiative also develops the foundations of a civil security policy through non-public expert discussions and public conferences in a mutual exchange between academic research and civil society actors. The results of this process are to be published in a separate series.
Initial successes include the 2019 Peace Synod of the Protestant Church in Germany calling for "at least 2% of GDP for development policy measures, for combating the causes of violence, for crisis prevention, for non-violent conflict management and for aftercare and civil reconstruction work in crisis regions". The scenario is now also the basis of a dialog with the Munich Security Conference. By the beginning of 2021, 200 public events on the scenario will have been held, including several congresses and study days.
The short version of the scenario is now also available in English, French and Dutch, and Polish and Russian translations are in preparation.
Anyone interested in finding out more about the initiative can come to the Stiftskirche in Landau on Friday, September 25 from 7 pm. Stefan Maaß, the peace officer of the regional church in Baden, will present the scenario in the parish hall.
For further information see www.sicherheitneudenken.de
