VonTim Schreck

The impact of the war in Ukraine on the global food supply is currently the subject of much discussion in the media. However, food insecurity was already facing challenges due to the pandemic and the effects of climate change. This article looks at the reciprocal relationship between (violent) conflicts and food insecurity. Using Kenya as an example, the effects of the war in Ukraine and existing problems in the food system are categorized and local strategies for adaptation and resilience building are considered.

Food insecurity in the context of conflicts

In light of the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global supply chains, the increased impact of climate change, ongoing violent conflicts and, most recently, the war in Ukraine, which involves two of the world's most important food exporters, the number of people affected by food insecurity and malnutrition is steadily increasing^{1 _.} Achieving the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), to create a world without hunger by 2030, is therefore a long way off. The effects of the war are currently still being cushioned by last year's harvests. The trend could be exacerbated if future harvests fail completely or their export is further reduced. The World Food Program (WFP) estimates that the effects of the war could increase the global number of people affected by acute hunger by a further 17%, with the largest percentage increases of over 20% in Africa. The FAO's definition makes it clear that food security is not achieved by sufficient global food production alone, but that people's access to the products is crucial to whether they are affected by hunger or not (FAO, 1996). Despite conflicts, pandemics and climate change, the amount of food produced worldwide is sufficient to feed the entire world population. Even if the direct consequences of these crises on production play their part, the effects on markets and food prices are particularly significant, limiting access to sufficient and suitable food, especially for poor population groups.

The most common cause of food insecurity is violent conflict. Ten of the 13 biggest food crises in 2019 were directly caused by such conflicts. 60% of all people affected by hunger live in countries affected by violent conflict. These have a direct impact through the deliberate destruction of agricultural land or the displacement of people from their land, or indirectly as a structural consequence of wars that can disrupt or destroy people's livelihoods and food markets. This leads to price increases, while the purchasing power of the population decreases.

Conversely, conflicts in the form of protests or uprisings are also driven by food insecurity. Such conflicts are often about access to land and water. In addition, the perception of injustice is heightened when there is enough food but the population cannot afford it. In the wake of rising food prices, partly caused by climate-related crop failures, "bread riots" broke out in several countries as early as 2008. There was also an accumulation and intensification of riots in 2011 after food prices had risen in the previous year. Food insecurity is not the sole reason or the main cause of protests. However, it can be seen as a trigger or multiplier, increasing the likelihood and intensity of violent or even armed conflict when economic or political grievances already exist (Winne & Peersman, 2021).

(Violent) conflicts and food insecurity thus form a vicious circle that is difficult to break and that can also spread to countries outside the original conflict region through displacement and migration movements. Conversely, food security can also promote peace and in turn have a positive impact on markets and food supply (Hendrix & Brinkman, 2013).

The impact of the Ukraine war on the global food system is closely linked to the volume of exports and the importance of production goods. On the one hand, wheat and cooking oil are important components of many people's staple diet. The export shares of Russia and Ukraine on the world market amount to 30 % for wheat and 80 % for sunflowers. On the other hand, less fertilizer is being exported, which means that domestic production in other countries will also be affected by global price increases. This is already having a direct impact on the global prices of agricultural products, which have already risen in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. In March 2022, the FAO Food Price Index reached a record high since its introduction in 1990, with grain and vegetable oil prices rising by 17% and 30% respectively between February and March. Added to this are the significantly higher costs for fertilizers and fuels.

Ukraine war: one problem among many in Kenya

In many African countries, price increases and food shortages are compounded by extreme weather and climate events such as floods and droughts. The effects of war and the pandemic are coming up against food systems that have been under pressure for some time. Kenya can be used as an example here. Here, 7 out of 10 people are already affected by food insecurity. Like most African countries, Kenya is a net importer of food. The country obtains 85% of its wheat from imports, 36% of which comes from Russia and Ukraine. Other types of grain and fertilizers are also largely sourced from these two countries. Although Kenya is therefore less dependent on Russian and Ukrainian imports than other African countries, the global price increases are still noticeable here and can therefore be seen as an example of the impact on the region.

The price developments here are not a new trend. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on supply chains, the price of fertilizer and food had already risen significantly beforehand. Measures surrounding the pandemic led to a recession in many low- and middle-income countries, such as Kenya. As a result, foreign debt has grown globally and the ability to invest in economic recovery and social protection is low. In addition, low rainfall in March and April meant that the third consecutive year of drought has already caused crop yields to fall by 70 %. In addition, the rural population is particularly affected by land seizures by international companies, as a result of which they lose their access to land and the possibility of subsistence farming (Makutsa, 2010).

As a country whose GDP is largely based on the export of agricultural products (including tea and coffee), the combination of rising fertilizer prices and extreme weather events has a particularly significant impact on the economy. The inflation rate in the food sector was therefore almost 10% in March 2022. Such price increases particularly affect low-income population groups for whom the purchase of food already accounts for the majority of expenditure and who are not supported by state social protection measures. In many African countries, including Kenya, this includes the majority of the population. People who are already affected by poverty due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic have to adapt by, for example, switching to lower quality food, reducing food intake or reducing expenditure in other areas of life, such as health and education. For this reason, protests against rising food prices were already taking place on social networks before the war in Ukraine began. Under the hashtag "lowerfoodprices", Kenyans criticized the government, accusing it of being incapable of countering the rise in food prices, which had made the population's living situation unbearable.

Governmental and non-governmental solutions

In order to curb costs, states can try to subsidize prices for household resources. However, countries are often under pressure from the IMF to generate more revenue and are forced to maintain or increase tax revenues through budget funds. Export bans are also not a sustainable option, as this could cause global market prices to rise further. States are left to expand emergency food aid and invest in social protection systems, which many find difficult in the context of the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In order to promote food security in the long term, the United Nations emphasizes the particular value of supporting local farmers, who are often affected by food insecurity themselves, but who produce around half of the world's calories and also make up the majority of the population in Kenya. The United Nations emphasizes the key role of farmers in conflict prevention, especially in countries with a high potential for conflict. As they operate in local markets, this also promotes civil society and social engagement, strengthens local economies and can therefore create more resilient and peaceful communities. It is therefore important for sustainable food security that these groups are supported and protected in the long term.

In Kenya, 40% of the entire population and 70% of the rural population work in the agricultural sector. There are already numerous NGOs working to support the local population and try to promote food security. NGOs such as RODI Kenya place particular emphasis on sustainable production and the revitalization of traditional agriculture. The importance of sustainable agriculture is increasing in the context of permanent yield declines, which are on the rise in 'conventional' farming. The advantage of relying on traditional techniques and species is that they are often better adapted to the local climate and are also more resilient to changes in the course of climate change.

Traditional techniques are also often combined with modern sustainable forms of cultivation, which are considered to be particularly efficient and resilient to climate change. Without the addition of chemicals, this reduces farmers' dependence on imports. Bibakenya is an example of NGOs that focus on the seed sovereignty of local farmers. The focus here is on diversity and the reintroduction of traditional seeds. The seeds are traded on local markets and stored in community seed banks. This not only strengthens the food security of individuals, but also promotes community cooperation and thus potentially prevents local conflicts.

However, the success of such projects depends on the legal framework. For example, unregistered farmers in Kenya cannot participate in government systems due to laws such as the Seeds and Plant Varieties Act. This increases the control of international companies over local farmers and creates product dependency. Furthermore, under the "COMSHIP Plan" (COMESA² Seed Harmonization Implementation Plan), which aims to harmonize seed policy across Africa. Under these regulations, only conventional seeds owned by transnational companies are recognized.

Conclusion: Sovereignty, adaptation and resilience to global pressure

In the face of increasing global food insecurity, strengthening the sovereignty and resilience of local farmers can play a key role. The war in Ukraine is further increasing the pressure on the global food system, which is already under strain due to the pandemic and climate change. The current price increases are just a foretaste of those that threaten if future harvests in Ukraine fail and exports remain restricted. The growing number of people affected by food insecurity due to the resulting high food prices increases the potential for conflict in countries where a large proportion of the population is already suffering from economic and political grievances. This clearly shows how dependent and disadvantaged populations are on global markets and price fluctuations. Local NGOs are already trying to do their part to make populations resilient to external influences and strengthen food security despite global crises. However, the national and international framework conditions must not have a restrictive effect on the adaptation and sovereignty of the population. Adequate food is a human right, the guarantee of which not only has a positive impact on health and quality of life, but also contributes to the peaceful coexistence of people.