Political blockbusters: When research on TV debates becomes as exciting as the political battle itself

Two candidates, one stage, millions of viewers. TV duels, trialogues or, for the first time this year, quadrangles are among the most exciting events of an election campaign. Here, the leading candidates face each other directly and answer the moderators' critical questions. A single moment can decide how viewers and potential voters rate the candidate.

But what happens in the minds of viewers during these heated debates? Which arguments are really convincing? Which moments determine the overall impression? And perhaps the most important question: How is the judgement formed? Jürgen Maier, Professor of Politics in the Department of Cultural and Social Sciences at RPTU in Landau, has been working on precisely these questions for more than 20 years.  In 2002, the first TV debate between Edmund Stoiber and Gerhard Schröder opened up an exciting range of topics for the young academic that still fascinates him today. He is particularly interested in analysing the trends that research has made increasingly clear in recent years. During the first TV duel, Jürgen Maier analysed the effect using an experimental study with participants on location at the University of Bamberg. Since then, research into the TV duels has undergone an impressive development. The most recent technical leap was made in 2021, when Maier developed the ‘real smart’ app together with computer scientist colleagues from Kaiserslautern and the German Research Centre for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI). This app makes a lot of things possible - above all, viewers can use the app to record their ratings and reactions in real time during the live broadcast of the TV duel - regardless of where they are. 

The ‘real smart’ app therefore creates an innovative basis for this year's research. However, the short election campaign before the 2025 general election brings with it other, new challenges. Everything has to happen much faster than planned: ‘What we are doing now was actually planned for September. We would normally have been able to bring the study into the field in peace and quiet. What's more, there was a Christmas break in the midst of all the hastily brought forward preparations, the lecture period is underway and all the committee meetings are in progress. And the study comes on top,’ explains Maier. Six TV duels, i.e. six data collections, have to be brought into the field and analysed in a very short space of time. Participants can use the app to answer a short questionnaire before and after the programme and evaluate live during the debate which statements or candidates spontaneously convince them, or which moments tend to cause scepticism. The data obtained in this way is extremely valuable for research - the more people take part, the more meaningful the findings. That's why, in addition to all the preparations, Jürgen Maier also takes part in live Insta programmes with appearances on TV, interviews on the radio and sharing the information on social media channels. 

Naturally, once the data has been collected, the scientific work really begins. First of all, the real-time reactions of the viewers have to be linked to the content analysis. ‘Many pieces of the puzzle from the different departments are put together here,’ says Maier. This is where Jürgen Maier's student assistants come into play. One of them is Master's student Paula Kromm. She meticulously codes the TV debates using certain variables with the help of the statistics programme SPSS and has to deal with the content of the TV debates: How often do the candidates interrupt each other? What is the focus of the statement? She records and categorises these and many other factors. What initially sounds like routine work is actually the basis for obtaining exciting results. Without Paula, audience reactions would be visualised by the app in real time. However, it is only the combination of real-time reactions and the content of the debates that enables the research team to understand exactly which statements led to which emotional reactions from viewers. This makes it possible to recognise patterns that provide information on how political messages are received in face-to-face debates - and which statements may also make the decisive difference at the ballot box. 

‘The knowledge gained should reach the outside world as quickly as possible and thus be made available to citizens and the media,’ emphasises Jürgen Maier. He therefore analyses the information from the questionnaires directly after the TV programmes and makes it available for everyone to see on the project website immediately afterwards. Analysing the real-time ratings is time-consuming due to the complex data set and requires more time.  In addition, the results are later presented in scientific publications and at international conferences.

Maier now has to work under enormous time pressure and is very grateful to his team, who enthusiastically support his research approach and make everything possible. His research assistants Jennifer Bast and Hannah Decker are a reliable support, as are his IT colleagues, who have brought the app up to date as quickly as possible. ‘The TV debates are probably the most important single event during the election campaign. There is no talk show or comparable format that even comes close to the reach and attention that such a debate generates,’ emphasises Maier. The experiments offer a unique opportunity to engage with politics in a special way and to be part of an exciting research project. By the way: the search for further participants is still ongoing! The best thing about it: anyone can take part.

Anyone who wants to make a contribution to research while watching the TV debates can easily do so: Download the app from the app store or via the project page, find out the broadcast dates there and take part.